Are we facing a leadership recession?

There’s a quiet shift happening in organisations right now and it’s not getting nearly enough airtime.

For years, leadership has been positioned as the natural next step. The reward for high performance. The marker of success. But increasingly, we’re seeing people pause, or opt out entirely. Not because they lack ambition, but because they’re questioning whether leadership, as it stands today, is actually worth it.

So, are we facing a leadership recession?

The leadership load has changed (dramatically)

Let’s call it what it is: being a leader has never been more complex.

Today’s leaders are navigating evolving employment legislation, increased accountability around psychosocial safety, and a workforce that spans four (sometimes five) generations. Each with different expectations, motivators, and definitions of success.

Layer in the growing visibility of mental health, neurodiversity, flexible work, inclusion, and leadership is no longer just about setting direction and delivering outcomes. It’s about holding nuance, managing ambiguity, balancing care and performance, making judgement calls in grey areas - often without a clear playbook.

And while expectations have expanded, capability-building hasn’t always kept pace. Many leaders are learning on the job, in real time, under pressure.

That gap is starting to show.

The squeeze on the middle

Nowhere is this more visible than in the middle.

Middle leaders sit at the intersection of strategy and execution. They translate vision into action, shape the day-to-day experience of teams, and carry the cultural tone of an organisation.

But increasingly, they’re being asked to do more with less.

• Drive performance… but be empathetic

• Hold accountability… but create psychological safety

• Lead change… but maintain stability

• Deliver results… while managing capacity and budget constraints

It’s a constant balancing act.

We’re hearing more leaders describe their roles as relentless, reactive, and difficult to sustain over time. Not because they don’t care, but because the system around them isn’t designed for the level of complexity they’re being asked to hold.

When that becomes the lived experience, others are paying attention.

A shift in aspiration

We’re seeing a growing number of high performers actively choosing to step out of leadership roles, or avoiding ever stepping into them at all.

Not as a failure. Not as a lack of drive. But as a conscious decision about how they want to work and live.

For some, progression now looks like deep expertise rather than people leadership. For others, it’s about flexibility, autonomy, or impact without the weight of managing others.

And importantly, they’re asking better questions:

• What does this role actually require of me?

• What am I trading off?

• Is this aligned to how I want to show up?

That shift in mindset is significant because if leadership is increasingly seen as a trade-off rather than an opportunity, the pipeline doesn’t just shrink, it changes shape entirely.

What this means for the future of leadership

If fewer people are putting their hand up, organisations face a very real risk:

• A thinner leadership pipeline at a time when capability is more critical than ever

• Overloaded existing leaders, increasing burnout and turnover

• Accidental leaders who are stepping in by default rather than design

• A disconnect between strategy and execution, with fewer skilled translators in the middle

There is also an opportunity here though.This moment is forcing a reset. A chance to rethink not just who leads, but how leadership works.

Rethinking leadership before it becomes a crisis

If we want leadership to remain attractive and sustainable, we need to redesign it with intention.

That starts with honesty.

Being clear about what leadership actually involves today – the complexity, the expectations, the trade-offs. Not overselling it, but not undersupporting it either.

It means:

• Rebalancing roles so leaders aren’t carrying an unrealistic breadth of responsibility

• Investing in capability early, not just when someone steps into a role

• Redesigning career pathways so leadership isn’t the only definition of progression

• Equipping leaders with practical tools to navigate complexity 

• Creating environments where leaders are supported, not stretched to breaking point

Because leadership shouldn’t feel like a sacrifice. It should feel like a role you’re prepared for, supported in, and able to sustain.

So, are we in a leadership recession?

Not quite. But the indicators are there and, like any slow-moving shift, the risk isn’t the moment itself, it’s ignoring it for too long.

The organisations that respond early – who listen, adapt, and redesign – will be the ones who build strong, sustainable leadership benches for the future.

The ones who don’t may find themselves with roles no one wants to step into.

What do we do about it?

This is exactly the kind of challenge we’re working through with clients right now. Not just building leadership capability but stepping back and asking:

• Is the role itself set up for success?

• Are we clear on what great leadership looks like here?

• Are we developing people early enough, and in the right way?

• Are we creating pathways that people actually want to step into?

Because the future of leadership isn’t just about developing better leaders. It’s about designing better leadership.

If this is something you’re seeing in your organisation, we’d love to compare notes.